Question

Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation by then?

Resolved :Annulled65%

6 comments6

Total Forecasters74

Community Prediction65% (55% - 71%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 65%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 25, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

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If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2035-12-11

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21%

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

63%

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