Question

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

108 comments108

Total Forecasters349

Community Prediction2%

Make a Prediction

community: 2%

median 2.0%mean 5.8%

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Health & Pandemics

United States Intelligence Community

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

14%

How many high-risk laboratory biosecurity incidents will occur between 2022 and 2026 (inclusive)?

4.73

Comments

? comments

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Health & Pandemics

United States Intelligence Community

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New York Post•Oct 22, 2024

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Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

14%

How many high-risk laboratory biosecurity incidents will occur between 2022 and 2026 (inclusive)?

4.73