Question

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

Resolved :No1%

109 comments109

Total Forecasters352

Community Prediction1% (0.1% - 3%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

41.1

Community Peer Score

18.8

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

United States Intelligence Community

Another Government Agency Now Says COVID Likely Leaked From Lab: REPORT

Daily Caller•Jan 26, 2025

CIA Believes Lab Leak Most Likely Caused the COVID-19 Pandemic

Breitbart•Jan 26, 2025

CIA assesses lab leak most plausible source of Covid-19, though with low confidence

CNN•Jan 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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