Question

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters107

Community Prediction10%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 10%

median 10.0%mean 19.1%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Member states of NATO

Ukraine–NATO relations

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If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Member states of NATO

Ukraine–NATO relations

Will Trump stop Ukraine from joining NATO?

Strategic Culture•Nov 14, 2024

Ukraine: Conflict at the Crossroads of Europe and Russia

•Nov 17, 2024

What next on the war in Ukraine?

•Nov 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%