Question

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters116

Community Prediction

13%

(7% - 30%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 13%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2034

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 20, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Member states of NATO

Ukraine–NATO relations

All the terrifying signs World War III is already playing out in the shadows

Daily Mail•Mar 23, 2025

Russian tanks roll across the border, a barrage of missiles are fired on Britain - then nuclear hell breaks out: GENERAL SIR RICHARD SHIRREFF reveals how he believes WW3 will begin... and we have just

Daily Mail•Mar 22, 2025

Trump and Putin may have a deal, but it's a long way from ending the Ukraine war

Business Insider•Mar 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

63%

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2034

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 20, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Member states of NATO

Ukraine–NATO relations

All the terrifying signs World War III is already playing out in the shadows

Daily Mail•Mar 23, 2025

Daily Mail•Mar 22, 2025

Trump and Putin may have a deal, but it's a long way from ending the Ukraine war

Business Insider•Mar 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

63%