Question

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters115

Community Prediction11% (6% - 26%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 11%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2034

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Member states of NATO

Ukraine–NATO relations

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If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

63%

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2034

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Member states of NATO

Ukraine–NATO relations

Our world affairs editor Sam Kiley answers your questions on Russia, Ukraine, Trump, escalating war and misinformation

Independent•Mar 1, 2025

Can Europe guarantee Ukraine’s security without the US?

Al Jazeera•Mar 3, 2025

What the world could look like in 2035 according to more than 350 experts

Daily Mail•Mar 5, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

63%