Question

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters110

Community Prediction10% (5% - 25%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 10%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2034

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Member states of NATO

Ukraine–NATO relations

NATO Warns Russian Victory Would Cost Allies Trillions

Newsweek•Jan 23, 2025

NATO Boss Warns Russian Victory Would Damage Alliance's Credibility

Breitbart•Jan 23, 2025

Russia Issues Warning Over NATO Flotilla 'Abuses' in Baltic Sea

Newsweek•Jan 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

63%

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2034

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Member states of NATO

Ukraine–NATO relations

NATO Warns Russian Victory Would Cost Allies Trillions

Newsweek•Jan 23, 2025

NATO Boss Warns Russian Victory Would Damage Alliance's Credibility

Breitbart•Jan 23, 2025

Russia Issues Warning Over NATO Flotilla 'Abuses' in Baltic Sea

Newsweek•Jan 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

63%