🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

13
7
Community Prediction0%7%14%21%28%35%Nov 13Nov 17Nov 21Nov 25Nov 29Dec 03Dec 07Dec 11Dec 15Dec 19Dec 23Dec 27Dec 31Jan 04Jan 08now
Total Forecasters108
Community Prediction14% (5% - 30%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 14%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
havlickova.blanka
Opened:Nov 18, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2034
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2034
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
Member states of NATO
Ukraine–NATO relations
Public university
United States
NATO
Russia

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