Question

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

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Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction70% (50% - 80%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 70%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2029

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Pakistan

France

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

A brief history of missing US nuclear weapons

Snopes•Feb 13, 2025

Inside secret US lab where US will begin testing nukes again amid fears of WWIII

Daily Mail•Feb 16, 2025

Chilling map reveals where 75% of US population could perish in event of a nuclear attack

Daily Mail•Feb 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

25%

Comments

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Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2029

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Pakistan

France

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

A brief history of missing US nuclear weapons

Snopes•Feb 13, 2025

Inside secret US lab where US will begin testing nukes again amid fears of WWIII

Daily Mail•Feb 16, 2025

Chilling map reveals where 75% of US population could perish in event of a nuclear attack

Daily Mail•Feb 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

25%