Question

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

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Total Forecasters29

Community Prediction67% (63.6% - 80%)

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50%

community: 67%

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Authors:

havlickova.blanka

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Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

China

United Kingdom

India

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Pakistan

France

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

United States

Israel

How To Prepare for Nuclear War

Lew Rockwell•Dec 13, 2024

US Shares Update on China's Nuclear Arsenal

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Takeaways from the AP’s reporting on nuclear bunkers

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

3.5%

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

Comments

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Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

China

United Kingdom

India

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Pakistan

France

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

United States

Israel

How To Prepare for Nuclear War

Lew Rockwell•Dec 13, 2024

US Shares Update on China's Nuclear Arsenal

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Takeaways from the AP’s reporting on nuclear bunkers

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

3.5%

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

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At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

Make a Prediction

If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

Comments

If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?