Question

Will China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters66

Community Prediction56% (50% - 67%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 56%

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Arms Control Association

China

Federation of American Scientists

US Department of Defense

What Would World War III Look Like?

Newsweek•Dec 10, 2024

Chinese military makes massive deployment around Taiwan to send 'very simple' message

FOX News•Dec 11, 2024

Joe Biden Under Pressure To Take Away Donald Trump's Nuclear War Power

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → 2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Arms Control Association

China

Federation of American Scientists

US Department of Defense

What Would World War III Look Like?

Newsweek•Dec 10, 2024

Chinese military makes massive deployment around Taiwan to send 'very simple' message

FOX News•Dec 11, 2024

Joe Biden Under Pressure To Take Away Donald Trump's Nuclear War Power

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

Will China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?

Make a Prediction

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → 2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?

Comments

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → 2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → 2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → 2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?