Question
What will be the cost of sequencing a whole human genome in 2026 (in 2021 USD)?
Total Forecasters47
Community Prediction
118 $
(72.7 - 196)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <1 | 0.2% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 72.68 $ | — |
| median | 117.5 $ | — |
| upper 75% | 196.3 $ | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >1k | 1.8% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Jan 7, 2022
Closes:Dec 30, 2027
Scheduled resolution:Dec 30, 2027
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 9, 2022
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
If a benchtop DNA synthesizer that can synthesize DNA with 5,000 bases is commercially available in 2030, what will be the cost of the cheapest model (in 2024 US dollars)?
189k
Will the cost of sequencing a human genome in 2031 be less than the value of one hour of US labor productivity?
75%
When will the first human genome be artificially synthesized?
2044
Comments
? comments
Authors:
Opened:Jan 7, 2022
Closes:Dec 30, 2027
Scheduled resolution:Dec 30, 2027
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 9, 2022
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
If a benchtop DNA synthesizer that can synthesize DNA with 5,000 bases is commercially available in 2030, what will be the cost of the cheapest model (in 2024 US dollars)?
189k
Will the cost of sequencing a human genome in 2031 be less than the value of one hour of US labor productivity?
75%
When will the first human genome be artificially synthesized?
2044