Question

Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?

Resolved :No

6 comments6

Total Forecasters103

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

65.1

Community Peer Score

12.4

median 1.0%mean 2.2%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Future Perfect 2022 Series

2022 Scott Alexander predictions

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

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