Question

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

47 comments47

Total Forecasters283

Community Prediction42.2

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My Prediction

community

<0.033

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>600

...

2.1%

12.13

42.24

141.6

10.7%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial general intelligence

Paul Christiano

RoboCup

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

19.7

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2027-10-02

How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?

Comments

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Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial general intelligence

Paul Christiano

RoboCup

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Red State•Nov 13, 2024

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Time•Nov 15, 2024

Those bold AGI predictions are suddenly looking stretched

Business Insider•Nov 17, 2024

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After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

19.7

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2027-10-02