Question

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

48 comments48

Total Forecasters294

Community Prediction31.1 (6.43 - 103)

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CDF

weight:

My Prediction

community

<0.033

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>600

...

2.7%

6.428

31.12

103.4

8.6%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Dec 30, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2150

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2200

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AGI Outcomes

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Artificial general intelligence

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After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

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When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2026-10-26

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