Question

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

47 comments47

Total Forecasters0

Community Prediction...

Make a Prediction

weight:

My Prediction

community

<0.033

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>600

...

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial general intelligence

Paul Christiano

RoboCup

Predictions for AI in 2025: Collaborative Agents, AI Skepticism, and New Risks

•Dec 24, 2024

An AI system has reached human level on a test for ‘general intelligence’. Here’s what that means

The Conversation•Dec 24, 2024

OpenAI and Microsoft have put a price tag on what it means to achieve AGI: report

Business Insider•Dec 27, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

20.1

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2027-02-01

How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?

Comments

? comments