Question

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

49 comments49

Total Forecasters301

Community Prediction

30.9

(7.04 - 96.5)

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CDF

	<0.033	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>600
community	2.1%	7.042	30.91	96.48	7.2%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<0.033	2.1%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	7.042	—
median	30.91	—
upper 75%	96.48	—
Upper bound
>600	7.2%	—

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Dec 30, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2150

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2200

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 31, 2021

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