Question

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

Total Forecasters297

Community Prediction30.2 (6.17 - 98.5)

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weight:

	<0.033	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>600
community	2.4%	6.168	30.18	98.51	8.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<0.033	2.4%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	6.168	—
median	30.18	—
upper 75%	98.51	—
Upper bound
>600	8.1%	—

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Dec 30, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2150

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2200

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After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

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2026-10-07

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