Question

When will the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf Collapse?

Total Forecasters15

Community Prediction2027-05-03 (2026-01-11 - 2029-04-27)

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2031-12-31
community	Jan 2026	May 2027	Apr 2029	9.9%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	Jan 2026	—
median	May 2027	—
upper 75%	Apr 2029	—
Upper bound
>2031-12-31	9.9%	—

Authors:

abhay

Opened:

Jan 2, 2022

Closes:

Mar 31, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 29, 2032

Environment & Climate

Thwaites Glacier

West Antarctica

West Antarctic Ice Sheet

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New York Times•Mar 5, 2025

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