Question

When will the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf Collapse?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters15

Community Prediction2027-05-03 (2026-01-11 - 2029-04-27)

Make a Prediction

weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2031-12-31

...

2026-01-11 21:59

2027-05-03 15:10

2029-04-27 09:47

9.9%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

abhay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Environment & Climate

Thwaites Glacier

West Antarctica

West Antarctic Ice Sheet

The world's biggest and oldest iceberg is on the move once again

NPR Online News•Dec 20, 2024

Incredible satellite images show Greenland’s massive ice sheet melting

Independent•Dec 21, 2024

NASA Images Reveal World's Largest Iceberg Escaping Antarctica

Newsweek•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse?

2051-10-05

What will be the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years?

2.29

What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years?

3.96

Comments

? comments

Authors:

abhay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Environment & Climate

Thwaites Glacier

West Antarctica

West Antarctic Ice Sheet

The world's biggest and oldest iceberg is on the move once again

NPR Online News•Dec 20, 2024

Incredible satellite images show Greenland’s massive ice sheet melting

Independent•Dec 21, 2024

NASA Images Reveal World's Largest Iceberg Escaping Antarctica

Newsweek•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse?

2051-10-05

What will be the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years?

2.29

What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years?

3.96

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

When will the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf Collapse?

Make a Prediction

When will the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse?

What will be the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years?

What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years?

Comments

When will the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse?

What will be the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years?

What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years?

When will the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse?

What will be the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years?

What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years?

When will the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse?

What will be the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years?

What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years?