Question

Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?

Resolved :No1%

13 comments13

Total Forecasters50

Community Prediction1% (1% - 12%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

0.4

Community Peer Score

10.7

Authors:

WilliamKiely

Opened:

Jan 9, 2022

Closes:

Jan 8, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 8, 2023

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Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

WilliamKiely

Opened:

Jan 9, 2022

Closes:

Jan 8, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 8, 2023

Health & Pandemics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

COVID Broke the Rules of Virus Evolution

Atlantic•Feb 24, 2025

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Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that he will not be mistreated by George Mason University through the end of 2030?

76%

Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?