Question

Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030?

13 comments13

Total Forecasters174

Community Prediction78%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 78%

median 78.0%mean 74.3%

Authors:

AdamKosloff

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

The Pentagon

The Heritage Foundation

September 11 attacks

World Trade Center (1973–2001)

United States

New York (state)

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

15%

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

3.5%

Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AdamKosloff

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

The Pentagon

The Heritage Foundation

September 11 attacks

World Trade Center (1973–2001)

United States

New York (state)

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Independent•Nov 14, 2024

FBI Thwarts '9/11-Style' Terror Attack Plot on US Soil

Townhall•Nov 15, 2024

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American Thinker•Nov 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

15%

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

3.5%