Question

Will a space elevator successfully be built on Earth before 2100?

34 comments34

Total Forecasters331

Community Prediction9% (2% - 18%)

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50%

community: 9%

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Authors:

AdamKosloff

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Aerospace engineering

NASA

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Will either a space elevator or a skyhook transport at least 10 metric tons (cumulative payloads) before 2046?

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

52%

Will SpinLaunch lift a satellite to low Earth orbit by 2032?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AdamKosloff

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Aerospace engineering

NASA

Human settlement of Mars isn’t as far off as you might think

Raw Story•Dec 18, 2024

Rumors Say Proposed Tunnel Would Allow London-to-NYC Travel in an Hour. Here Are the Facts

Snopes•Dec 19, 2024

Are the sonic booms from SpaceX’s Starship launches dangerous? Here’s what experts say

CNN•Dec 24, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will either a space elevator or a skyhook transport at least 10 metric tons (cumulative payloads) before 2046?

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

52%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will a space elevator successfully be built on Earth before 2100?

Make a Prediction

Will either a space elevator or a skyhook transport at least 10 metric tons (cumulative payloads) before 2046?

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

Will SpinLaunch lift a satellite to low Earth orbit by 2032?

Comments

Will either a space elevator or a skyhook transport at least 10 metric tons (cumulative payloads) before 2046?

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

Will SpinLaunch lift a satellite to low Earth orbit by 2032?

Will either a space elevator or a skyhook transport at least 10 metric tons (cumulative payloads) before 2046?

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

Will SpinLaunch lift a satellite to low Earth orbit by 2032?

Will either a space elevator or a skyhook transport at least 10 metric tons (cumulative payloads) before 2046?

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

Will SpinLaunch lift a satellite to low Earth orbit by 2032?