📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?

Resolved :2.1×10²⁵1.3×10²⁵
11
15
Total Forecasters46
Community Prediction1.3×10²⁵ (4.9×10²⁴ - 2.9×10²⁵)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

My Prediction
community
<1×10²²
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>1×10²⁷
...
...
...
...
...
0.2%
4.9×10²⁴
1.3×10²⁵
2.9×10²⁵
0.5%

What was the final result?2.1×10²⁵

Community Baseline Score
30.5
Community Peer Score
16.2
Authors:
Tamay
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
AI Training and Compute
AI Technical Benchmarks
Artificial Intelligence
2022-2023 Leaderboard
FLOPS
Measurement
Machine learning
Information technology
Linguistics
OpenAI
GPT2

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