Question
How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?
Resolved:2.1×10²⁵Total Forecasters46
Community Prediction
1.3×10²⁵
(4.9×10²⁴ - 2.9×10²⁵)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <1×10²² | 0.2% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 4.9×10²⁴ | — |
| median | 1.3×10²⁵ | — |
| upper 75% | 2.9×10²⁵ | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >1×10²⁷ | 0.5% | — |
What was the final result?2.1×10²⁵
Community Baseline Score
30.5
Community Peer Score
16.2
Authors:
Opened:Jan 19, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolves:Dec 31, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 21, 2022
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 19, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolves:Dec 31, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 21, 2022
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch