Question

Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters61

Community Prediction5% (3% - 8%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 5%

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Jan 26, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2040

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2300

In vitro fertilisation

United States

Medicine

Reproductive medicine

Abortion in the United States

Republican Party (US)

China’s unstoppable STEM army

Strategic Culture•Feb 12, 2025

Paris AI summit: Why won’t US, UK sign global artificial intelligence pact?

Al Jazeera•Feb 12, 2025

DeepSeek and the Truth About Chinese Tech

Atlantic•Feb 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the USA be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

40%

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15%

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

56.7%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Jan 26, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2040

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2300

In vitro fertilisation

United States

Medicine

Reproductive medicine

Abortion in the United States

Republican Party (US)

China’s unstoppable STEM army

Strategic Culture•Feb 12, 2025

Paris AI summit: Why won’t US, UK sign global artificial intelligence pact?

Al Jazeera•Feb 12, 2025

DeepSeek and the Truth About Chinese Tech

Atlantic•Feb 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the USA be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

40%

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15%

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

56.7%