Question

Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?

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Total Forecasters25

Community Prediction31.2%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 31.2%

median 31.2%mean 31.1%

Authors:

samuelraasch casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Agriculture in the United States

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When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

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If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

85%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

samuelraasch casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Agriculture in the United States

African swine fever virus

Bird flu infections more widespread among US dairy workers than thought – study

Guardian•Nov 12, 2024

Is the climate change food crisis even worse than we imagined?

New Scientist•Nov 12, 2024

H5N1 bird flu might be more prevalent among humans than public health data shows

Independent•Nov 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

2052-09-01

Biosecurity Vulnerabilities of American Food Supply

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

85%