MetaculusM

Question

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

10

Total Forecasters40

Community Prediction23% (20% - 33.3%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 23%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jan 28, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2038

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2039

Environment & Climate

Long Now Foundation

January wasn't expected to break global temperature records. But it did.

NPR Online News•Feb 12, 2025

Climate change target of 2C is ‘dead’, says renowned climate scientist

Guardian•Feb 15, 2025

Climate Upheaval, Mild or Severe, Who Really Cares?

CounterPunch•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jan 28, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2038

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2039

Environment & Climate

Long Now Foundation

January wasn't expected to break global temperature records. But it did.

NPR Online News•Feb 12, 2025

Climate change target of 2C is ‘dead’, says renowned climate scientist

Guardian•Feb 15, 2025

Climate Upheaval, Mild or Severe, Who Really Cares?

CounterPunch•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch