Question

When will SpaceX Starship first successfully fly an external customer payload?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters59

Community Prediction

12 Sep 2025

(07 Mar 2025 - 18 May 2026)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>01 Jan 2027
community	07 Mar 2025	12 Sep 2025	18 May 2026	10.6%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	07 Mar 2025	—
median	12 Sep 2025	—
upper 75%	18 May 2026	—
Upper bound
>179876160000%	10.6%	—

Authors:

evanbd

Opened:

Feb 22, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 24, 2022

SpaceX reusable launch system

NASA

SpaceX

SpaceX prepares to launch 4-person crew on first polar orbit mission

New York Post•Mar 27, 2025

Space Force plans to put a multisatellite ‘carrier’ into orbit

Defense One•Mar 27, 2025

Germany takes on Elon Musk's SpaceX: European aerospace start-up unveils 95ft Spectrum rocket that will be used to launch payloads into low-Earth orbit from continental Europe

Daily Mail•Mar 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Comments

? comments

Authors:

evanbd

Opened:

Feb 22, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 24, 2022

SpaceX reusable launch system

NASA

SpaceX

SpaceX prepares to launch 4-person crew on first polar orbit mission

New York Post•Mar 27, 2025

Space Force plans to put a multisatellite ‘carrier’ into orbit

Defense One•Mar 27, 2025

Germany takes on Elon Musk's SpaceX: European aerospace start-up unveils 95ft Spectrum rocket that will be used to launch payloads into low-Earth orbit from continental Europe

Daily Mail•Mar 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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MetaculusM

When will SpaceX Starship first successfully fly an external customer payload?

Make a Prediction

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Comments

When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?

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When will a reusable single-stage-to-orbit vehicle deliver a payload to orbit?

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