Question

Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?

Resolved :No

13 comments13

Total Forecasters99

Community Prediction20%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 20%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

4.2

Community Peer Score

21.3

median 20.0%mean 21.1%

Authors:

CrabMan

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

Russo-Ukrainian War

Martial law in Russia

Federal subjects of Russia

Russia

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?

Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?

0.1%

When will martial law be lifted in at least 3/4 of Ukraine?

2026-04-27

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