Question

Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?

Resolved :No1%

42 comments42

Total Forecasters653

Community Prediction1% (1% - 2%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

96.4

Community Peer Score

5.9

Authors:

TomL

Opened:

Feb 25, 2022

Closes:

Mar 23, 2022

Resolves:

Mar 31, 2022

North Atlantic Treaty

Ukraine–NATO relations

NATO Ally Warns of Russia Launching 'Large-Scale' War in Europe

Newsweek•Feb 12, 2025

Elon Musk Goes After NATO

Newsweek•Feb 13, 2025

NATO is in disarray after the US announces that its security priorities lie elsewhere

Associated Press•Feb 13, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

63%

Comments

? comments