Question

Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?

Resolved :No

42 comments42

Total Forecasters653

Community Prediction

(1% - 2%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

96.4

Community Peer Score

5.9

Authors:

TomL

Opened:

Feb 25, 2022

Closes:

Mar 23, 2022

Resolves:

Mar 31, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 25, 2022

North Atlantic Treaty

Ukraine–NATO relations

Could US forces in Europe face a refusal of supply and support?

Al Jazeera•Mar 25, 2025

In defiance of Donald Trump, is a European ‘security council’ emerging? | Paul Taylor

Guardian•Mar 25, 2025

European Leaders Start Drafting 5-10 Year Plan to Replace US in NATO

InfoWars•Mar 23, 2025

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Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

13%

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

63%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

TomL

Opened:

Feb 25, 2022

Closes:

Mar 23, 2022

Resolves:

Mar 31, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 25, 2022

North Atlantic Treaty

Ukraine–NATO relations

Could US forces in Europe face a refusal of supply and support?

Al Jazeera•Mar 25, 2025

In defiance of Donald Trump, is a European ‘security council’ emerging? | Paul Taylor

Guardian•Mar 25, 2025

European Leaders Start Drafting 5-10 Year Plan to Replace US in NATO

InfoWars•Mar 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

13%

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

63%