Question

Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?

Resolved :No1%

42 comments42

Total Forecasters653

Community Prediction1% (1% - 2%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

96.4

Community Beer Score

5.9

Authors:

TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

2022 Leaderboard

North Atlantic Treaty

Ukraine–NATO relations

United States

NATO

NATO Nation Scrambles Fighter Jets After Russian Ballistic Missile Strikes

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

NATO nations are reportedly in talks to boost defense spending amid Trump's return to power

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

NATO chief urges members to 'turbocharge' defense production as he paints picture of a world bound for war

FOX News•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

0.5%

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

14%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

2022 Leaderboard

North Atlantic Treaty

Ukraine–NATO relations

United States

NATO

NATO Nation Scrambles Fighter Jets After Russian Ballistic Missile Strikes

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

NATO nations are reportedly in talks to boost defense spending amid Trump's return to power

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

NATO chief urges members to 'turbocharge' defense production as he paints picture of a world bound for war

FOX News•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

0.5%

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

14%

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Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?

Make a Prediction

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

Comments

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?