Question

Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?

Resolved :Yes99%

149 comments149

Total Forecasters966

Community Prediction99% (99% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

48.8

Community Beer Score

11.8

Authors:

ClayGraubard casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Russia's losses in Ukraine as of December 11: +1,400 troops and 20 armored vehicles

•Dec 13, 2024

Dozens of North Korean Soldiers Killed in Ukraine Advance

Newsweek•Dec 16, 2024

News Analysis: Russian general’s assassination in Moscow: Chilling new phase in Ukraine war?

•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will 1 million Russian personnel losses be reported before 2026?

61%

Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?

0.5%

Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

0.5%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

ClayGraubard casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Russia's losses in Ukraine as of December 11: +1,400 troops and 20 armored vehicles

•Dec 13, 2024

Dozens of North Korean Soldiers Killed in Ukraine Advance

Newsweek•Dec 16, 2024

News Analysis: Russian general’s assassination in Moscow: Chilling new phase in Ukraine war?

•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will 1 million Russian personnel losses be reported before 2026?

61%

Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?

0.5%

Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

0.5%

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Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?

Make a Prediction

Will 1 million Russian personnel losses be reported before 2026?

Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?

Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

Comments

Will 1 million Russian personnel losses be reported before 2026?

Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?

Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

Will 1 million Russian personnel losses be reported before 2026?

Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?

Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

Will 1 million Russian personnel losses be reported before 2026?

Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?

Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?