M

Question

Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?

Resolved:Yes
25
Resolved Apr 27, 2022
78
Community Prediction50%60%70%80%90%100%Feb 28Mar 04Mar 08Mar 12Mar 16Mar 20Mar 24Mar 28Apr 01Apr 05Apr 09Apr 13Apr 17Apr 21Apr 25now
Total Forecasters658
Community Prediction
99%
(95% - 99%)

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50%
community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

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This question will resolve positively if between February 25, 2022 and December 31, 2022 at least three European countries’ governments announce they are no longer buying natural gas from Russia. Payments to Russia for natural gas must cease by February 1, 2023 to count, but announcements can be made about the future refusal up until December 31, 2022

On February 24, 2022 EuroNews published the article What happens if Russia shuts off gas supplies to Europe?:

“Europe relies on Russia for around 40 percent of its natural gas. Most comes through pipelines including Yamal-Europe, which crosses Belarus and Poland to Germany, and Nord Stream 1, which goes directly to Germany, and via Ukraine.” [...] ”Norway, Europe's second largest supplier, is delivering natural gas at maximum capacity and can't replace any missing supplies from Russia, its prime minister has said.”

However,

“Europe has options, including expanding nuclear and renewable energy infrastructure. Efforts by Germany and Nordic countries in recent months to expand the continent’s wind power capacity might accelerate, and some officials see the potential breakaway from Russian gas as an opportunity to pivot toward energy independence.” “The complete West will turn away from Russia,” German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck told the Associated Press after news of the invasion broke on Thursday. “We will diversify our energy system. We will not buy Russian coal and gas in such an amount in the future.” Thus we ask:


median 99.0%mean 95.4%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Authors:
Opened:Feb 26, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2022
Resolves:Dec 31, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 26, 2022

Comments

78 comments

this question resolves as Yes, according to statements by lithuania's energy ministry and statements by polish and bulgarian officials.

3

Summary to date:

  1. Lithuania issued a government statement as contemplated by the resolution instructions (see comments from 3 weeks back)

2 & 3: apparently Bulgaria & Poland are refusing to pay for their gas in roubles. (See recent comments)

If so, that would make 3 countries that stop paying Russia for gas before 2023.

If we get government statements from Poland & Bulgaria, I think that resolves the question as of whenever the gas stops flowing? Or, do we wait to see if they start buying Russian gas again?

— edited by kievalet

4

(redundant information)

— edited by Prodicus

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/international-business/article-russian-gas-supplies-to-poland-halted-media/?rel=premium

It might be that Russia will cut off gas now. In turn, this means it's more likely countires will offiically cut off gas if it simply reflects the situation.

EDIT: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-poland-belarus-0163bafc05b8f904722ee969f00e7061

Bulgaria cut off as well now.

— edited by hyperflare

4

https://www.baltictimes.com/saeima_committee_supports_prohibiting_the_import_of_russian_natural_gas_to_latvia/

Looks like the Latvian legislature is making plans to prohibit import from Russia -- but has yet to act. More details expected Monday.

4

@admin delete

— edited by AdamRen

Statement from Latvijas Gaze may not firmly cancel Latvian import of Russian gas. All I get is that Latvia won't buy gas this month.

Opinions sought.

2

It looks like Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia have all announced they have stopped buying gas: https://www.barrons.com/news/baltic-states-stop-russian-gas-imports-01648935006

I suspect we need more details on payments before resolution, but if it holds up I think the announcement portion has likely been met.

14

@evanbd as the decision is based on Putin's requirement of payment in rubles, surely there would be no more payments from Baltic states since April 1st

@arcxi That's my expectation as well. Is the Barrons article enough detail for resolution? I was assuming we'd wait for additional sources.

@evanbd

I assumed we needed a government statement.

Lithuania's statement from its Energy Ministry may be such a thing. It's pretty detailed.

3

@(Rexracer63)

And I think they're saying that they're the first & only (thus far)

1

@(kievalet) I read the Barron's article and this from Al Jazeera as saying all the Baltic states have stopped:

“Since April 1st, Russian natural gas is no longer flowing to Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania,” he told Latvian radio, adding that the Baltic market was currently being served by gas reserves stored underground in Latvia.

But I've only seen the official government statement from Lithuania.

7

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