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Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?
60%
11
40 comments
40
🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆
What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates?
Dec-2026:
213
4
47 comments
47
Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2031-12-09
176
479 comments
479
AGI Outcomes
Five years after AGI, what % of people will be living in extreme poverty?
5.11
5
3 comments
3
Five Years After AGI
Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?
77%
29
48 comments
48
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2027-10-23
201
476 comments
476
AI Progress Essay Contest
When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?
2025-02-26
58
99 comments
99
Effective Institutions Project
When will an AI system, operating independently, solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem and have its proof or disproof published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal?
2039-10-29
2
15 comments
15
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
51%
32
98 comments
98
AGI Outcomes
Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?
1%
1
36 comments
36
Public Perception of AI
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