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Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?

1115 forecasters

113

300 comments300

What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?

End of 2024:3.5k

6

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

777 forecasters

59

108 comments108

Effective Institutions Project

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

306 forecasters

33

AI Demonstrations

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

1523 forecasters

201

482 comments482

AI Progress Essay Contest

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

6

Chinese AI Chips

When will models hit 90% on SWE-Bench (Verified Version)

3

David Mathers' Community

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

13

Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?

616 forecasters

17

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

1432 forecasters

176

488 comments488