Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🔭
Bridgewater 2025
🤖
AI Benchmarking
📖
ACX 2025
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?
1341 forecasters
Revealed
63
60 comments
60
ACX 2025 Prediction Contest
Will Maersk resume shipping in the Red Sea in 2025?
714 forecasters
Revealed
30
8 comments
8
ACX 2025 Prediction Contest
Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?
796 forecasters
Revealed
5
8 comments
8
ACX 2025 Prediction Contest
Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?
751 forecasters
Revealed
27
7 comments
7
Future Perfect
Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?
743 forecasters
Revealed
1
8 comments
8
ACX 2025 Prediction Contest
How many seconds until midnight will the Doomsday Clock show on January 29, 2025?
80 to 89
72.01%
90 seconds to midnight (unchanged)
18.4%
60 to 79
9.19%
4 others
21
14 comments
14
Bridgewater Forecasting Contest Warmup
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?
683 forecasters
Revealed
2
5 comments
5
Future Perfect
Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
Syria
80%
Haiti
67.6%
Mali
60%
70 others
28
82 comments
82
Will there be a "World War Three" before 2050?
20%
1783 forecasters
154
247 comments
247
If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?
65%
795 forecasters
20
26 comments
26
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Load More