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AI Benchmarking
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How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup?

6.18
33 forecasters
6
36

Will the winning bot in any Quarterly AI Benchmarking tournament beat the human Pro aggregate before Q3 of 2025?

35%
27 forecasters
8
34

How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?

2.49
44 forecasters
15
22

By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?

2025:1%
52 forecasters
10
15

When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?

2049-02-27
105 forecasters
9
36

Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?

32%
43 forecasters
7
13

Will a question of unknown nature resolve positive?

Resolved :No
82 forecasters
5
23

Will the ICO industry still be growing in May 2018?

Resolved :No
101 forecasters
7
16

Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?

Resolved :No
77 forecasters
1
14

Will Metaculus exist in 2030?

95%
524 forecasters
49
54