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If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?
Ukraine
25%
Israel
20%
Pakistan
10%
5 others
6
8 comments
8
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?
0.2%
959 forecasters
19
28 comments
28
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
69%
Saudi Arabia
20%
South Korea
5%
7 others
8
6 comments
6
condition
Chinese GDP Overtakes US Before 2030?
59 forecasters
if yes
if no
US-China war before 2035?
15%
15%
US-China war before 2035?
10%
10%
13
no comments
0
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?
1%
52 forecasters
5
no comments
0
How many nuclear weapon states will there be in 2030?
9
61.9%
10
35%
11
10%
4 others
4
12 comments
12
Will there be a US-China war before 2035?
9%
429 forecasters
40
33 comments
33
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?
10%
108 forecasters
13
7 comments
7
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will humans go extinct before 2100?
1.4%
1237 forecasters
72
331 comments
331
Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?
1%
182 forecasters
4
105 comments
105
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