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How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?

2022-10-10 to 2024-12-31

2025-01-01 to 2029-12-31

2030-01-01 to 2039-12-31

21

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

232 forecasters

44

Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?

274 forecasters

27

AI Demonstrations

Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

403 forecasters

42

AI Demonstrations

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

14

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

17

Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years

26

Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years?

9

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?

9