Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind
45%
Microsoft
28.6%
Meta
20%
13 others
5
8 comments
8
Future of AI
Will there be a frontier AI model from the given country before 2035?
India
50%
Israel
40%
Russia
12%
9
1 comment
1
Future of AI
Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?
2035
4%
2030
2%
3
no comments
0
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will the U.S. employment to population ratio fall below 50% before 2027?
1%
26 forecasters
5
1 comment
1
Will the U.S. employment to population ratio fall below 30% before 2030?
1%
22 forecasters
8
1 comment
1