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Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?
98%
4
1 comment
1
Chinese AI Chips
Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?
33%
5
4 comments
4
Chinese AI Chips
Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?
3%
16
10 comments
10
Business of AI
What will be the combined annual revenue of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?
Resolved :
Annulled
3
2 comments
2
AI in China
What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?
Resolved :
Below lower bound
3
8 comments
8
AI in China
Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
Resolved :
Yes
10
7 comments
7
Effective Institutions Project
When will a Chinese AI Lab train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4)?
Resolved :
May 28, 2024
2
7 comments
7
AI in China
condition
Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
Resolved :
Yes
if yes
if no
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
2026-04-19
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
2025-11-23
Resolved :
Annulled
4
no comments
0
Will a Fortune 500 Global non-tech company train a frontier AI model before 2026?
7%
3
1 comment
1
Future of AI
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
2026:
49%
9
2 comments
2
Future of AI
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