MetaculusM

Questions
Tournaments

Leaderboards
News
create

AI Benchmarking

Topics

categories

See all categories

About
API

FAQ
forecasting resources
For Journalists

Careers

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?

115 forecasters

16

How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market?

Q1 (FY2025, ends Apr 2024):13.9

6

Chinese AI Chips

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

4

Chinese AI Chips

Fully autonomous self-driving cars by 2018?

198 forecasters

88

AI Demonstrations

Of the top 10 AI companies, how many will pledge not to develop lethal autonomous weapons?

8

What will be the combined annual revenue of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?

Resolved :Annulled

3

What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?

Resolved :Below lower bound

3

Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?

159 forecasters

10

Effective Institutions Project

When will a Chinese AI Lab train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4)?

Resolved :May 28, 2024

2

Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?

Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known

Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known

Resolved :Annulled

4