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How many high-risk laboratory biosecurity incidents will occur between 2022 and 2026 (inclusive)?
4.58
102 forecasters
9
4 comments
4
Biosecurity Tournament
Will a fatality of one or more per year due to accidental infections in "select agent" pathogen research labs be reported in the next year?
Resolved :
No
67 forecasters
2
8 comments
8
Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?
Resolved :
No
101 forecasters
2
3 comments
3
Pandemic Series (2018)
Pandemic series: pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard?
Resolved :
No
64 forecasters
3
3 comments
3
Pandemic Series (2018)
Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?
Resolved :
No
52 forecasters
9
6 comments
6
How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?
5.73
25 forecasters
20
4 comments
4
How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2025?
43.5M
11 forecasters
1
no comments
0
Future Effective Altruism Resources Series
How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2030?
43.7M
11 forecasters
1
no comments
0
Future Effective Altruism Resources Series
Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?
Resolved :
No
103 forecasters
8
6 comments
6
2022 Scott Alexander predictions
Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years
26
11 comments
11
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