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When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?
2025-02-23
58
100 comments
100
Effective Institutions Project
Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?
OpenAI GPT-4, not optional
5%
Anthropic AI Claude, not optional
3%
GitHub Copilot, optional
1%
3 others
6
1 comment
1
Business of AI
condition
AI in 2024 Presidential Debates
if yes
if no
When AI concern go mainstream in US?
2026-01-15
When AI concern go mainstream in US?
2026-04-04
5
1 comment
1
Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?
1%
8
13 comments
13
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
80%
6
1 comment
1
AI Safety
Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?
1%
1
36 comments
36
Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?
9%
6
4 comments
4
AI Safety
When will OpenAI next update its approach to alignment research?
Resolved :
Feb 24, 2023
9
39 comments
39
Business of AI
Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?
Resolved :
Yes
5
14 comments
14
Business of AI
Will ChatGPT-like bots accurately describe their own reward mechanisms before 2025?
Resolved :
Annulled
14
23 comments
23
AI Demonstrations
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