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Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?

31

208 comments208

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

20

If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

6

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Will there be a "World War Three" before 2050?

1233 forecasters

148

242 comments242

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

6

Chinese AI Chips

Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?

380 forecasters

10

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

13

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

589 forecasters

15

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

8

Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?

7

Chinese AI Chips