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Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?
South Korea
1%
Japan
1%
Ukraine
1%
6 others
12
17 comments
17
Will there be a "World War Three" before 2050?
30%
147
237 comments
237
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
2025:
1%
71
339 comments
339
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?
≤5 nm
98.5%
≤3 nm
86%
≤2 nm
28.3%
10
5 comments
5
Chinese AI Chips
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
70%
Saudi Arabia
23%
South Korea
5%
7 others
8
6 comments
6
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?
Ukraine
30%
Israel
25%
Pakistan
16%
5 others
6
8 comments
8
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
How many nuclear weapon states will there be in 2030?
9
61%
10
31%
11
10%
4 others
4
12 comments
12
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?
20%
58
67 comments
67
When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?
2024-11-19
13
15 comments
15
AI in China
Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?
67%
10
14 comments
14
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