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Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

15

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

6

How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate?

5

Transparent Replications

How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years?

5

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?

9

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?

6

When will an AI agent be able to win Portal 2 on its first run?

13

Will India be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will the US, UK, China, or any of the countries in the EU enact a universal basic income before 2030?

14

Will the United States enact a law that protects whistleblowers from disclosing to the general public potential harm to the public caused by an AI system before 2028?

7