MetaculusM

Questions
Tournaments

Leaderboards
News
create

AI Benchmarking

Topics

categories

See all categories

About
API

FAQ
forecasting resources
For Journalists

Careers

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

When will the first major tech company offer a university course taught primarily by AI?

2

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

6

How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate?

5

Transparent Replications

How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years?

5

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?

9

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?

6

Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

15

When will an AI agent be able to win Portal 2 on its first run?

13

Will India be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will the US, UK, China, or any of the countries in the EU enact a universal basic income before 2030?

14