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Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
AI-Fizzle
31.78%
Futurama
25.41%
AI-Dystopia
17.45%
2 others
31
160 comments
160
AGI Outcomes
Will wild influenza B/Yamagata be declared eradicated before 2030?
30%
8
26 comments
26
In 2016, will an AI player beat a professionally ranked human in the ancient game of Go?
Resolved :
Yes
40
21 comments
21
AI Demonstrations
A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious
Resolved :
No
5
12 comments
12
AI ambiguity Series
Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?
Resolved :
No
3
2 comments
2
Pandemic Series (2018)
Will a human beat AlphaGo in 2017?
Resolved :
No
10
19 comments
19
When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?
Resolved :
Oct 2, 2018
39
22 comments
22
AI Demonstrations
A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?
Resolved :
No
5
2 comments
2
When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output?
2.31k
15
16 comments
16
What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?
Resolved :
90.9
3
1 comment
1
AI Technical Benchmarks
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