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When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2032-01-24
176
480 comments
480
AGI Outcomes
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2027-10-22
201
476 comments
476
AI Progress Essay Contest
Will there be a frontier AI model from the given country before 2035?
India
47%
Israel
40%
Russia
6%
9
1 comment
1
Future of AI
What will be the best score on the GAIA benchmark before 2025?
47.4
7
1 comment
1
AI Benchmarks
Will photonic tensor cores be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030?
13%
17
22 comments
22
AI Technical Benchmarks
When will an AI be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?
2027-04-13
29
18 comments
18
AI Demonstrations
What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates?
June 30, 2024:
91.1
20
32 comments
32
AI Technical Benchmarks
Will a prediction market outperform Nate Silver's forecasts for the Super Tuesday primaries?
Resolved :
Yes
11
17 comments
17
When will programs write programs for us?
Resolved :
Jul 7, 2021
58
68 comments
68
AI Demonstrations
Will Metaculus's predictions significantly improve in the next 6 months?
Resolved :
No
8
14 comments
14
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