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When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

1523 forecasters

201

482 comments482

AI Progress Essay Contest

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

1432 forecasters

176

488 comments488

When will at least a zettabyte of digital information be destroyed as the result of a single event?

7

What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates?

June 30, 2025:94.7

12

AI Technical Benchmarks

What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?

23

AI Technical Benchmarks

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025?

12

AI Technical Benchmarks

What will be the best perplexity score by a language model on the Penn Treebank (Word Level) by the end of 2024?

5

AI Technical Benchmarks

3 AI labs constrain capabilities before 2026?

Date of Artificial General Intelligence

Date of Artificial General Intelligence

7

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?

3

Chinese AI Chips

When will an AI be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?

138 forecasters

29

AI Demonstrations