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If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?

10

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra

Anthropic / Claude 4 Opus

20

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

1459 forecasters

221

146 comments146

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Google DeepMind

9

Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee

Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025?

Google DeepMind

5

Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities?

Google DeepMind

12

Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025?

Google DeepMind

3

Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025?

Google DeepMind

4

3 AI labs constrain capabilities before 2026?

Date of Artificial General Intelligence

Date of Artificial General Intelligence

7

Will there be a breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?

290 forecasters

34

AI Demonstrations