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Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?
98%
221
146 comments
146
AGI Outcomes
Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025?
OpenAI
4%
Anthropic
2%
Google DeepMind
1%
5
4 comments
4
AI Safety
Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?
Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra
18%
Anthropic / Claude 4 Opus
18%
OpenAI / GPT-5
9%
19
31 comments
31
Will there be a breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?
99%
34
67 comments
67
AI Demonstrations
On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?
OpenAI
38.55%
Anthropic
31.77%
Google DeepMind
23.96%
3 others
9
9 comments
9
Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee
In 2016, will an AI player beat a professionally ranked human in the ancient game of Go?
Resolved :
Yes
40
21 comments
21
AI Demonstrations
Will Google's AlphaGo beat Go player Lee Sedol in March 2016?
Resolved :
Yes
47
32 comments
32
AI Demonstrations
Will Lee Sedol defeat AlphaGo in any of the three games remaining?
Resolved :
Yes
20
18 comments
18
A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic
Resolved :
No
20
13 comments
13
AI ambiguity Series
When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?
Resolved :
Jan 24, 2019
73
49 comments
49
AI Demonstrations
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