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By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?

241 forecasters

49

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

1459 forecasters

221

146 comments146

By January 1, 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?

270 forecasters

37

When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?

104 forecasters

19

AI Demonstrations

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

125 forecasters

15

Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?

14

Will quantized gravity soon be tested in the lab?

110 forecasters

24

Will we reach the island of stability by 2050?

163 forecasters

25

What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?

17

Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?

239 forecasters

52