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Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?
98%
221
146 comments
146
AGI Outcomes
Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?
8%
15
17 comments
17
AI Safety
Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?
95%
40
47 comments
47
AGI Outcomes
Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
78%
11
25 comments
25
What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates?
June 30, 2024:
91.1
20
32 comments
32
AI Technical Benchmarks
Will quantized gravity soon be tested in the lab?
Resolved :
No
24
12 comments
12
Will we reach the island of stability by 2050?
36%
25
5 comments
5
What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?
Resolved :
-5e-1
17
19 comments
19
By January 1, 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?
5%
37
60 comments
60
Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?
83%
52
46 comments
46
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