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Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
51%
32
98 comments
98
AGI Outcomes
What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?
For-profit
80%
Government
10%
Non-profit
8%
3 others
17
7 comments
7
Situational Awareness
Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025?
No Restriction
75%
Civil Liability Laws
20%
Mandatory Disclosure Requirements
10%
4 others
10
37 comments
37
Regulation of AI
Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?
98%
221
146 comments
146
AGI Outcomes
Ragnarรถk Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
68%
21
13 comments
13
Ragnarรถk Series
By 1 January 2067, will any medical interventions for healthy adults extend average lifespans by at least 25 years?
52%
20
14 comments
14
Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?
2%
6
16 comments
16
Animal Welfare Series
Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?
2036
19%
2030
13.8%
2026
2%
6
no comments
0
Future of AI
Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?
10%
22
40 comments
40
Animal Welfare Series
Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?
77%
20
24 comments
24
AGI Outcomes
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