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Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

1459 forecasters

221

146 comments146

Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

403 forecasters

42

AI Demonstrations

Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025?

Civil Liability Laws

Mandatory Disclosure Requirements

10

Regulation of AI

What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?

17

Situational Awareness

How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?

2022-10-10 to 2024-12-31

2025-01-01 to 2029-12-31

2030-01-01 to 2039-12-31

20

Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?

16

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

396 forecasters

34

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

371 forecasters

38

Ragnarök Series

Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?

269 forecasters

36

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

231 forecasters

44