Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
🇺🇸
2024 US Election Hub
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?
South Korea
1%
Japan
1%
Ukraine
1%
6 others
12
17 comments
17
Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?
United States
35%
Estonia
28%
Poland
28%
9 others
9
7 comments
7
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
70%
Saudi Arabia
23%
South Korea
5%
7 others
8
6 comments
6
How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?
32
9
20 comments
20
Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income be introduced in any EU country before 2041?
72%
24
32 comments
32
Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?
1%
19
18 comments
18
Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
Haiti
69%
Mali
68%
Libya
60%
70 others
20
59 comments
59
How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?
Resolved :
287k
12
22 comments
22
Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament
Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?
Resolved :
-28
15
20 comments
20
How many troops of the NATO Response Force will deploy to the frontline states in 2022?
Resolved :
Below lower bound
4
4 comments
4
Load more