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How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?
2022-10-10 to 2024-12-31
50%
2025-01-01 to 2029-12-31
50%
2030-01-01 to 2039-12-31
30%
2 others
20
19 comments
19
Future of AI
Will humans go extinct before 2100?
1.4%
1237 forecasters
72
331 comments
331
When will Gross World Product exceed 1 quadrillion USD?
2074-08-27
39 forecasters
16
11 comments
11
Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?
30%
38 forecasters
10
16 comments
16
If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?
4%
57 forecasters
6
4 comments
4
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?
37%
30 forecasters
3
1 comment
1
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?
2050-07-26
61 forecasters
15
6 comments
6
Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years
26
11 comments
11
condition
OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?
89 forecasters
if yes
if no
Human Extinction by 2100
1%
1%
Human Extinction by 2100
4%
4%
14
11 comments
11
AI Safety
