Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
🇺🇸
2024 US Election Hub
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2032-01-24
176
480 comments
480
AGI Outcomes
Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025?
No Restriction
75%
Civil Liability Laws
20%
Mandatory Disclosure Requirements
10%
4 others
10
37 comments
37
Regulation of AI
Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?
Singapore
80%
Taiwan
73.1%
Vietnam
70%
9 others
6
6 comments
6
Chinese AI Chips
Will Bitcoin move away from proof-of-work before 2035?
5%
11
26 comments
26
Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?
2036
19%
2030
13.8%
2026
2%
6
no comments
0
Future of AI
condition
US Restricts China's Cloud Compute Access?
if yes
if no
NVIDIA's Market cap next 5 years (End of 2024)
3.12k
NVIDIA's Market cap next 5 years (End of 2024)
3.2k
1
no comments
0
Conditional Cup
condition
EV Sales Share Above 11% in US in 2024?
if yes
if no
Level 2 or Greater Public Charging Stations (2025)
71.5k
Level 2 or Greater Public Charging Stations (2025)
70.2k
2
2 comments
2
Conditional Cup
Will more than 50% of US adults own a personal augmented reality device by 2050?
64%
13
6 comments
6
When will >50% of users access Google over IPv6?
2025-01-19
6
12 comments
12
Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?
15%
7
3 comments
3
Chinese AI Chips
Load more