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Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?
Sudan
Yes
Niger
67%
Haiti
60%
52 others
31
208 comments
208
Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
Haiti
69%
Mali
68%
Afghanistan
63%
70 others
20
59 comments
59
Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?
3%
504 forecasters
15
29 comments
29
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
69%
Saudi Arabia
20%
South Korea
5%
7 others
8
6 comments
6
Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?
4%
280 forecasters
26
80 comments
80
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?
0.1%
110 forecasters
6
6 comments
6
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?
1%
207 forecasters
13
26 comments
26
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?
57%
421 forecasters
63
153 comments
153
Verity
Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?
5%
40 forecasters
5
4 comments
4
condition
Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024?
26 forecasters
if yes
if no
US Iran War Before 2025?
2%
2%
US Iran War Before 2025?
1%
1%
3
no comments
0
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