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How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?
2022-10-10 to 2024-12-31
50%
2025-01-01 to 2029-12-31
50%
2030-01-01 to 2039-12-31
30%
2 others
20
19 comments
19
Future of AI
When will LessWrong first curate an AI-written post that was not revealed to have been AI-written at the time of curation?
2025-04-06
14 forecasters
8
1 comment
1
How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?
Resolved :
310
46 forecasters
5
10 comments
10
If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?
Resolved :
No
135 forecasters
13
27 comments
27
[Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?
Resolved :
No
20 forecasters
5
10 comments
10
How many of the new LessWrong book sets will be sold on Amazon by March 1st 2022?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
22 forecasters
2
14 comments
14
New Video Tutorial for Szilard Essay Contest
6
1 comment
1
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
AI Safety ∩ AI/DL Research
10
no comments
0
AI Progress Essay Contest
