Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
2025:
1%
776 forecasters
72
348 comments
348
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?
39%
952 forecasters
104
200 comments
200
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
DPP wins 2024 Taiwanese election?
Resolved :
Yes
16 forecasters
if yes
if no
Chinese Control of Half of Taiwan by 2050?
55%
55%
Chinese Control of Half of Taiwan by 2050?
48%
48%
Resolved :
Annulled
4
1 comment
1
condition
US Iran War Before 2025?
48 forecasters
if yes
if no
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)
50%
50%
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)
21%
21%
5
1 comment
1
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?
1%
18 forecasters
2
no comments
0
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
China Disavows Force in Taiwan Reunification?
10 forecasters
if yes
if no
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)
25%
25%
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)
30%
30%
1
3 comments
3
The Taiwan Tinderbox