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When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2027-10-22
201
476 comments
476
AI Progress Essay Contest
Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?
98%
221
146 comments
146
AGI Outcomes
Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?
65%
47
51 comments
51
AI Demonstrations
On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?
OpenAI
38.55%
Anthropic
31.77%
Google DeepMind
23.96%
3 others
9
9 comments
9
Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee
Commercial speech recognition to soon be better than human?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
10
8 comments
8
When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?
Resolved :
Oct 2, 2018
39
22 comments
22
AI Demonstrations
Best Penn Treebank perplexity of 2019?
Resolved :
50.1
6
17 comments
17
Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated before 2051?
36%
13
7 comments
7
Will there be more ArXiv AI publications in the “Computation and Language” subcategory than in the “Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition” subcategory in the calendar year 2019?
Resolved :
No
4
7 comments
7
What percent of ArXiv AI publications in the calendar year 2019 will be in the subcategory “Computation and Language”?
Resolved :
15.2
6
7 comments
7
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