MetaculusM

Questions
Tournaments

Leaderboards
News
create

AI Benchmarking

Topics

categories

See all categories

About
API

FAQ
forecasting resources
For Journalists

Careers

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

1523 forecasters

201

482 comments482

AI Progress Essay Contest

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

6

Chinese AI Chips

Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?

616 forecasters

17

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

Google DeepMind

9

Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee

What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates?

June 30, 2025:94.7

12

AI Technical Benchmarks

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra

Anthropic / Claude 4 Opus

20

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

31

160 comments160

Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities?

Google DeepMind

12

When will the first major tech company offer a university course taught primarily by AI?

2

When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?

594 forecasters

94