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When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2027-10-22
201
476 comments
476
AI Progress Essay Contest
Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?
≤5 nm
98.5%
≤3 nm
86%
≤2 nm
28.3%
10
5 comments
5
Chinese AI Chips
When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?
2025-07-12
30
27 comments
27
AI Demonstrations
Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?
8%
15
17 comments
17
AI Safety
Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?
15%
17
70 comments
70
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?
Singapore
80%
Taiwan
73.1%
Vietnam
70%
9 others
6
6 comments
6
Chinese AI Chips
When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?
2028-09-22
94
72 comments
72
AGI Outcomes
When will the first major tech company offer a university course taught primarily by AI?
2031-01-01
2
3 comments
3
Will there be a frontier AI model from the given country before 2035?
India
47%
Israel
40%
Russia
6%
9
1 comment
1
Future of AI
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
AI-Fizzle
32.04%
Futurama
26.42%
AI-Dystopia
15.99%
2 others
31
160 comments
160
AGI Outcomes
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