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Nuclear Technology & Risks
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Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025?
Level 3
25%
Level 2
3%
Level 1
1%
10
9 comments
9
Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?
1%
115 forecasters
2
18 comments
18
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Ragnarรถk Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
46.9%
77 forecasters
6
5 comments
5
Ragnarรถk Series
Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?
2%
37 forecasters
2
1 comment
1
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?
L5:
2030-06-07
243 forecasters
9
121 comments
121
The FAA to soon open the door to commercial use of unmanned aerial systems?
Resolved :
No
85 forecasters
15
12 comments
12
Will the AI's major professional society take a position on "killer robots"?
Resolved :
No
15 forecasters
5
3 comments
3
Has North Korea tested a boosted fission nuclear device?
Resolved :
No
10 forecasters
9
6 comments
6
Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?
Resolved :
No
114 forecasters
5
4 comments
4
Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?
Resolved :
No
81 forecasters
12
1 comment
1
Pandemic Series (2018)
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